IBM technical analysis

Price vs each weekly EMA

• – EMA20: price is below EMA20 at 238.19 by -4.64%.
• – EMA50: price is below EMA50 at 249.21 by -8.86%.
• – EMA200: price is above EMA200 at 217.63 by 4.36%.

EMA stack

• – The stack is mixed / transitioning.
• – That means the weekly EMA structure is not fully bullish or fully bearish.
• – The EMA stack describes trend, not entry timing.

Crosses

• – Last EMA50/EMA200 cross: none within the computable window.
• – Nothing was found, so there is no dated golden cross or death cross to report from the computed window.

What would change this read

• – A weekly close back above EMA20: 238.19 would change the short-term relationship versus the 20-week trend.
• – A weekly close back above EMA50: 249.21 would reverse the current below-EMA50 condition.
• – A weekly close below EMA200: 217.63 would remove the current above-EMA200 support relationship.

MACD vs signal line

• – MACD: -8.83
• – Signal: -8.20
• – Relationship: MACD is below the signal line, which is a bearish posture.
• – Last signal-line crossover: bearish on 2026-07-20, 12 bars ago.

Histogram

• – Histogram: -0.63
• – Sign: negative
• – Momentum: still bearish, but the 4-bar change of 0.2914 means the histogram is less negative than it was 4 bars ago, so bearish momentum is decelerating.

Zero line

• – MACD vs zero: below zero
• – Last zero-line cross: bearish on 2026-07-13, 13 bars ago.
• – This is separate from the signal-line crossover: the signal cross was on 2026-07-20, while the zero-line cross was on 2026-07-13.

Divergence checks

• – Bearish divergence check: none. The last two price pivots were 2026-08-03 close 237.28 / MACD -7.9196 and 2026-09-07 close 243.29 / MACD -7.5273.
• – Bullish divergence check: none. The last two price pivots were 2026-07-13 close 212.67 / MACD -2.2895 and 2026-09-28 close 222.64 / MACD -8.985.

What would change this read

• – A move of MACD back above the signal line from -8.8271 versus -8.1951 would change the current bearish MACD-versus-signal posture.
• – A move of MACD back above zero from -8.8271 would reverse the current below-zero condition tied to the 2026-07-13 bearish zero-line cross.
• – A new divergence reading that is not "none" for the last two price pivots would change the current no-divergence assessment.

Current RSI

• – Weekly RSI(14) is 44.29, which is neutral.
• – It is neither overbought nor oversold.

Direction over the last four weeks

• – RSI 4 bars ago was 44.45.
• – The current reading of 44.29 shows the RSI is falling over the last four weeks.

Most recent 70/30 band event

• – The most recent band event was RSI falling back below 70 on 2025-07-07.
• – That event was 66 bars ago.

Divergence checks

• – Bearish divergence check: nothing was found.
• – Last two price pivots: 2026-08-03 close 237.28 / rsi 46.04 -> 2026-09-07 close 243.29 / rsi 48.18
• – Bullish divergence check: nothing was found.
• – Last two price pivots: 2026-07-13 close 212.67 / rsi 40.05 -> 2026-09-28 close 222.64 / rsi 42.61

What would change this read

• – A move to 70 would change the RSI state to overbought.
• – A move to 30 would change the RSI state to oversold.
• – A reversal from the current decline would require the weekly RSI to move above 44.45.

• – ATR value and meaning: The weekly ATR(14) is 19.84, equal to 8.74% of the latest weekly close of 227.13. That means IBM’s normal weekly movement is about 19.84 points in either direction, based on the current volatility measure.
• – Volatility versus eight weeks ago: Volatility is contracting because ATR fell from 25.89 eight bars ago to 19.84 now.
• – 1x and 2x ATR bands:
• – 1x ATR band from close: 207.29 to 246.97. This is the expected weekly range around the close, not a price forecast.
• – 2x ATR band from close: 187.44 to 266.82. This shows a wider expected weekly movement envelope, again as an expected range rather than a prediction.

What would change this read:

• – A new weekly ATR reading above 25.89 would indicate the contraction has reversed.
• – A weekly ATR reading below 19.84 would extend the contraction.
• – A weekly close outside 207.29 to 246.97 would exceed the current 1x ATR expected range for a week.

• – 52-week high: 332.46 set 2026-06-01
• – 52-week low: 199.19 set 2026-07-20

52-week high and low:

How far price sits from each

• – Latest weekly close is 31.68% below the 52-week high
• – Latest weekly close is 14.03% above the 52-week low
• – Latest weekly close: 227.13

What the range position says

• – IBM is at 21% of its 52-week range, with 0% at the low and 100% at the high
• – That places the stock in the lower fifth of its longer weekly cycle, closer to the low than the high
• – The midpoint of the 52-week range is 265.82, and price is below that level

What would change this read

• – A move back above 265.82 would lift IBM above the midpoint of the 52-week range
• – A move toward 332.46 would reduce the 31.68% gap to the 52-week high
• – A drop back toward 199.19 would put price closer to the 52-week low