MSFT technical analysis

Price vs each EMA

• – Weekly close: 512.80
• – vs EMA20 469.19: price is above by 9.29%
• – vs EMA50 451.83: price is above by 13.49%
• – vs EMA200 401.32: price is above by 27.78%

EMA stack

• – The stack is bullish: 20 > 50 > 200
• – This stack describes trend, not entry timing.

Crosses

• – Last EMA50/EMA200 cross: none within the computable window
• – Nothing was found for a dated golden or death cross in the provided data.

What would change this read

• – A weekly close back to 469.19 would put price back at the EMA20 level.
• – A weekly close back to 451.83 would put price back at the EMA50 level.
• – A weekly close back to 401.32 would put price back at the EMA200 level.

MACD vs signal line

• – MACD: 24.66
• – Signal: 16.61
• – Relationship: MACD is above the signal line, which is a bullish posture.
• – Last signal-line crossover: bullish on 2026-07-13, which was 12 weeks ago.

Histogram

• – Histogram: 8.05
• – Sign: positive
• – Momentum: still positive, but decelerating, because the 4-bar change is -2.7727.

Zero line

• – MACD is above zero.
• – Last zero-line cross: bullish on 2026-08-03, which was 9 weeks ago.
• – This is a separate signal from the signal-line crossover and has a different horizon.

Divergence checks

• – Bearish divergence check: nothing was found.
• – Last two price pivots checked: 2026-08-24 close 513.53 / macd 15.2041 -> 2026-09-21 close 516.17 / macd 22.723.
• – Bullish divergence check: nothing was found.
• – Last two price pivots checked: 2026-08-17 close 483.24 / macd 10.0735 -> 2026-09-14 close 493.78 / macd 20.466.

What would change this read

• – A move of MACD from 24.6623 to below signal 16.6128 would remove the current bullish MACD-versus-signal posture.
• – A move of MACD from above zero to below zero would negate the current above-zero condition tied to the 2026-08-03 bullish zero-line cross.
• – If the histogram’s 4-bar change stopped being negative and turned back above -2.7727, that would show the current deceleration easing.

• – Current RSI and regime: weekly RSI(14) is 63.39, which is neutral, not overbought and not oversold.
• – Direction over the last four weeks: RSI was 61.14 four bars ago and is now 63.39, so the direction is rising.
• – Most recent 70/30 band event: recovered above 30 on 2026-03-30, which was 27 bars ago.
• – Divergence checks:
• – Bearish divergence: present — 2026-08-24 close 513.53 / rsi 65.62 -> 2026-09-21 close 516.17 / rsi 64.36.
• – Bullish divergence: nothing was found — 2026-08-17 close 483.24 / rsi 61.24 -> 2026-09-14 close 493.78 / rsi 60.66.

What would change this read

• – A move to RSI 70 or higher would change the regime from neutral to overbought.
• – A move to RSI 30 or lower would change the regime from neutral to oversold.
• – A reversal from the current rising pattern would be confirmed if RSI fell back below 61.14.

• – ATR value and percent of price: ATR(14) is 27.31, which is 5.32% of the latest weekly close of 512.8. That means the stock’s typical weekly movement is about 5.32% of price.
• – Volatility versus eight weeks ago: volatility is contracting because ATR(14) fell from 32.41 to 27.31.
• – 1x and 2x ATR bands: the 1x ATR band from the close is 485.49 to 540.11, which describes a normal expected weekly range around the close. The 2x ATR band is 458.19 to 567.41, which marks a wider expected weekly range; it is still an expected range, not a price forecast.

What would change this read

• – If ATR(14) moved back up toward or above 32.41, the contraction call would weaken.
• – If the weekly close moved outside 485.49 to 540.11, the 1x ATR range would be exceeded.
• – If the weekly close moved outside 458.19 to 567.41, the 2x ATR range would be exceeded.

• – 52-week high and low: the 52-week high is 553.72 set 2025-10-27, and the 52-week low is 349.2 set 2026-06-22.
• – Distance from each extreme: latest weekly close is 7.39% below the 52-week high and 46.85% above the 52-week low.
• – What the range position says: at 80% of the 52-week range, MSFT is in the upper portion of its longer weekly cycle, closer to the high than the low. The midpoint of the 52-week range is 451.46, and the latest weekly close of 512.8 is above that midpoint.

What would change this read

• – A break below 451.46 would move price back under the midpoint of the 52-week range.
• – A move back to 349.2 would erase most of the current range strength relative to the low.
• – A move to 553.72 would place the stock at the 52-week high and reset the range position to the top end.