ADBE technical analysis: trend, RSI, MACD and key levels

Trend: EMA 20 / 50 / 200

Bearish, high confidence Week of October 2, 2026

BEARISH — weekly close is below EMA20, EMA50, and EMA200, with a bearish 20 < 50 < 200 stack; confidence: high.

Price vs EMAs

– Weekly close: 237.69
– vs EMA20 249.12: price is below by 4.59%
– vs EMA50 274.73: price is below by 13.48%
– vs EMA200 378.21: price is below by 37.15%

EMA stack

– The stack is bearish because 20 < 50 < 200.
– This stack describes trend, not entry timing.

Cross

– The last EMA50/EMA200 cross was a death cross on 2025-03-17, which was 81 bars ago.

What would change this read

– A weekly close back above 249.12 would put price back above EMA20.
– A weekly close back above 274.73 would put price back above EMA50.
– A weekly close back above 378.21 would put price back above EMA200.

Momentum: MACD (12, 26, 9)

Bullish, medium confidence Week of October 2, 2026

BULLISH — MACD is above its signal line with a bullish weekly posture, and the latest bullish crossover is still recent; confidence: medium.

MACD vs signal line

– MACD: -4.73
– Signal: -5.80
– MACD is above the signal line, which is a bullish posture.
– Last signal-line crossover: bullish on 2026-07-06, 13 bars ago.

Histogram

– Histogram: 1.07, so it is positive.
– The 4-bar change is -4.4253, which means momentum is decelerating even though the histogram remains above zero.

Zero-line position

– MACD is below zero.
– Last zero-line cross: bearish on 2024-10-07, 104 bars ago.
– This is separate from the signal-line crossover: the signal-line cross is bullish and recent, while the zero-line cross is bearish and much older.

Divergence checks

– Bearish divergence check: none.
– Bullish divergence check: none.
– Nothing was found in either divergence check.

What would change this read

– A move in MACD back below -5.796 would put it back under the signal line.
– A histogram change from 1.0658 to negative would flip momentum from positive to negative.
– A move of MACD from -4.7302 to above zero would end the current below-zero condition.

Strength: RSI (14)

Neutral, high confidence Week of October 2, 2026

NEUTRAL — weekly RSI is 44.73, which is neutral and not at an extreme; confidence: high.

– Current RSI and regime: The current weekly RSI(14) is 44.73. That is neutral, with no overbought or oversold condition.
– Direction over the last four weeks: RSI was 48.48 four bars ago and is now 44.73, so the weekly RSI has been falling over the last four weeks.
– Most recent 70/30 band event: RSI recovered above 30 on 2026-06-22, 15 bars ago.
– Divergence checks: No bearish divergence was found. The last two price pivots were 2026-05-25 close 259.21 / RSI 43.62 and 2026-08-24 close 291.52 / RSI 60.59. No bullish divergence was found. The last two price pivots were 2026-06-15 close 195.16 / RSI 28.72 and 2026-09-21 close 235.47 / RSI 43.99.

What would change this read

– A weekly RSI move to at least 70 would change the regime to overbought.
– A weekly RSI move to at most 30 would change the regime to oversold.
– A reversal in the four-week direction, with RSI moving back above 48.48, would change the current falling short-term momentum read.

Volatility: ATR (14)

Volatility contracting, high confidence Week of September 25, 2026

CONTRACTING, current ATR is lower than eight weeks ago, high confidence.

The weekly Average True Range (ATR) for ADBE is currently 22.99. This indicates that the expected weekly trading range for the stock is approximately 9.76% of its latest weekly close price of 235.47.

Volatility for ADBE is contracting. The current weekly ATR of 22.99 is lower than the ATR of 24.45 observed eight weeks ago, indicating a decrease in the typical weekly price fluctuation.

The 1x ATR band, from 212.48 to 258.46, describes the expected normal weekly trading range around the latest close of 235.47. The 2x ATR band, spanning from 189.49 to 281.45, represents a wider, less frequent but still possible, weekly range of movement. These bands illustrate the stock's typical weekly price amplitude and are not price predictions.

What would change this read

– A weekly ATR value increasing above 24.45 would signal a return to expanding volatility.
– A weekly close above 258.46 or below 212.48 would indicate a move beyond the typical 1x ATR weekly range.

52-week range

Bearish, low confidence Week of October 2, 2026

BEARISH — ADBE is in the lower quarter of its 52-week weekly range at 27.40%, with price much closer to the low than the high; confidence: high.

– 52-week high and low:
– High: 363.70 set on 2025-10-27.
– Low: 190.12 set on 2026-06-15.
– Distance from each extreme:
– Latest weekly close is 34.65% below the 52-week high.
– Latest weekly close is 25.02% above the 52-week low.
– What the range position says:
– At 27.40% of the 52-week range, ADBE is in the lower portion of its weekly range, below the midpoint of 276.91. That places the stock closer to the low than the high in its longer cycle.

What would change this read

– A move back above the midpoint of 276.91 would shift the stock into the upper half of the 52-week range.
– A break below 190.12 would set a new 52-week low and worsen the range position.
– A move toward 363.70 would materially reduce the -34.65% gap from the 52-week high.

Educational content, not investment advice. Every figure above is computed from weekly price bars; the text only explains them. Past behaviour of an indicator says nothing certain about the future.